Nigeria loses $12.6b, 120 million barrels of crude in nine months

Nigeria has lost nothing less than 120 million barrels of crude oil from January and September this year amidst revenue crisis.

The level of crude oil loss in production translates to $12.6 billion going by crude oil production data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While Nigeria had proposed a budget of N20.5 trillion ($47.3 billion) in 2023 with the feasibility of relying heavily on borrowing amidst the country’s debt crisis, the $12.6 billion loss from the oil production would have provided a quarter of what is needed to finance the budget.

Infrastructure issues, pipeline leaks and oil theft have squeezed Nigerian output this year, leaving the country consistently below its OPEC+ crude targets. Nigeria’s own submission to the OPEC Secretariat put September crude output at just 938,000 b/d, just over half its quota for the month, while total liquids production was only 1.14mn b/d, according to the NUPRC.

Notwithstanding the challenges, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited is hopeful the country’s oil production will rebound to 1.8mn b/d by the end of the year and to increase further in 2023.

If Nigeria is successful in increasing its oil production, it may again broach the subject of adjusting the baseline production figure that determines its quotas within the OPEC+ group.

In 2021, the country produced 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, 1.76 million bpd in February and 1.74 million bpd in March. Production volume dropped slightly to 1.68 million bpd in April, went down to 1.65 million bpd in May and went to 1.63mbpd in June and July before dropping to 1.5 million bpd in August and September.

Compared to the same period in 2022, January production figure in terms of daily average was 1.67 million bpd, 1.52 million in February. In March, it dropped to 1.49 million bpd, went down slightly to 1.48mbpd in April before dropping sharply to 1.27 million bpd in May, 1.40 million bpd in June. It crashed to 1.31mbpd in July and worsened to 1.1 million bpd in August and September.

The total production from January to September of 2021, which included crude oil and condensate, stood at 452,051,631 barrels.

The total production from January to September of 2022, made up of crude oil, blended and unblended condensate stood at 331,825,054 barrels.

This development brought the level of loss in a space of nine months to 120,226,577 barrels.

While Brent was trading for $95.5 to barrel yesterday, the average between 2021 and 2022 stands at about $105 per barrel. The 120,226,577 barrels loss in the period under review translates to $12,623,790,585.